Saturday, October 24, 2009

Ed Smith: Liverpool Must Hold Their Nerve And Trust In Rafael Benitez

Do not be misled. Liverpool are not just sliding down the table. They are deep in the relegation zone. They do not face relegation from the Premier League – no one cares about that. We are talking about relegation from the Big Four's mini-league.

That is the way we now talk about sport, especially football. At any moment in every Premier League season, one of Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea or Liverpool will suffer a string of disappointing results. This shocking development is greeted by speculation about the sacking of their manager.

It is a recurrent theme – you just change the name of the manager under pressure at any given moment. Arsenal's poor start to last season led to a national inquiry about Arsène Wenger. Now it is Rafael Benitez's turn. So why do clubs consider sacking successful managers?

Expectation is the illness, impatience the symptom, disappointment the wound. For the first time since 1987 Liverpool have lost four games in a row, and they haven't won the English title for 19 years. Those statistics are being held up as the reasons why Benítez finds himself under such pressure.

But the real reason goes back further. It isn't just losing that causes problems for Benítez. It's the past – the triumphs of previous Liverpool teams. When I was growing up in the early Eighties, Liverpool were the game's aristocrats. They now cannot face the prospect of joining the minor gentry.

Liverpool today is a great footballing dynasty that finds itself outside the corridors of power. Three possibilities await them. They might regain power and pre-eminence, as Manchester United did under Sir Alex Ferguson. They could learn to live with revised expectations, as Everton have done. Or they could end up a basket-case of frustrated nostalgics living in the past.

Liverpool should consider the fate of the West Indies. They once dominated world cricket. In the 1980s, across the whole decade, the West Indies won 17 Tests against England. England won none. How the wheel has turned: in the 2000s England won 15 Tests to the West Indies' two. The West Indies sit eighth in the ICC world Test rankings.

The response of the West Indies cricket board to this long-term decline has been to sack coaches increasingly frequently. John Dyson, who enjoyed a measure of success, was given his marching orders this summer. But the revolving door policy has not arrested the West Indies' decline, it has exacerbated it.

When the West Indies dominated international cricket, Middlesex ruled the county scene. Between 1976 and 1993, Middlesex won seven County Championships and seven one-day titles.

Recent decades have not gone so well. To put it kindly, there has been a certain amount of chopping and changing of coaches and captains – this columnist included. But does trying all the possible permutations for a short period of time ever work?

While all successful teams are different, perhaps the only constant is that when lesser organisations panic, winning teams hold their nerve.

That is what Liverpool must do now. The best way to create sustained excellence is not demanding success immediately but ensuring stability at the top.

Patience is the best policy. Two of England's three best clubs (Arsenal and Manchester United) have the longest-standing managers in the Premier League.

So the best advice for Liverpool fans would be swallow their disappointment, temper their expectation, and trust the man who made them champions of Europe. Rationality demands no less. But when has football ever been rational?

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