Saturday, April 05, 2008

Premier League Preview: Arsenal vs. LiverpooL

Part one of the Arsenal-Liverpool trilogy finished all-square in the Champions League and now the focus shifts to the domestic stage and the quest for Premier League points. Unlike in Wednesday's game at the Emirates, the two sides will have rather different targets come Saturday lunchtime.

Liverpool are now favourites to secure fourth place in the Premier League after winning last weekend’s Merseyside derby 1-0. Another draw in North London would probably be seen as a good result for them. Arsenal, though, have to win on Saturday. Anything less and their title challenge may finally run out of steam, given that they are now six points behind Manchester United - whom they meet at Old Trafford next weekend - and one behind Chelsea.

Liverpool appear to be congratulating themselves for having achieved a 'near-perfect' outcome at the Emirates on Wednesday. Comments from Anfield have suggested that that the 1-1 draw was exactly what they were looking for, the feeling being that getting the away goal will have a huge influence on how the Reds approach the second leg in front of their own fans.

However, the Gunners were outstanding throughout the second half of the first leg of the European tie, pinning Liverpool back in their own half. It took a combination of resolute defending, some over-hasty finishing and a couple of large slices of luck to prevent an Arsenal victory.

Given that Liverpool set out to defend and showed limited attacking ambition, the fact that Arsenal created numerous chances should give the Gunners heart ahead of the next two matches between the sides.

Apart from the goals - within three minutes of each other - the main talking point from Wednesday's match was Arsenal's penalty appeal when Dirk Kuyt hauled down Alexander Hleb in the area. While Kuyt himself somewhat sheepishly sought to play down the incident, and former Liverpool striker David Fairclough accused Hleb of going down too easily, Tony Barrett of the Liverpool Echo offered a more realistic assessment.

"It was a penalty," he said. "As soon as I saw it, I watched Hleb come across Kuyt and his arm does come out and he catches Hleb. There is a tug there but the referee missed it. It is one of those you can say that Liverpool got away with it and I wouldn’t begin to contest that one."

Liverpool will be wary of Emmanuel Adebayor's aerial ability after the Togo striker put Arsenal briefly in front with a powerful header that asked questions of Liverpool's zonal marking system, and in particular of Sami Hyypia, who was caught flat-footed by Adebayor's movement. But equally, the way Steven Gerrard's driving run to set up Kuyt's equaliser left Arsenal defenders trailing in his wake was a lesson that Arsene Wenger will hope his players have quickly absorbed - though some would argue that not even the best-laid plans can stop Gerrard when he is in full flight.

Asked whether Benitez got his tactics spot-on, Barrett replied: "The result says he did. If you go to Arsenal at any time and get a draw you have done well. If you go there in Europe and get a draw and an away goal it sets us up perfectly, so I would say it was right. You will have to ride your luck because you won’t go to Arsenal and have it all your own way. I think he will be looking to do the same in the home leg because Liverpool don’t need to score now."

Regarding Saturday's game, though, another draw would be a decent result for Liverpool, given that Arsenal are still going for the title and can be expected to fight all the way again. Some of the Gunners looked a little leg-weary towards h end of Wednesday's clash, but Wenger will have less scope, if equal temptation, to rotate his squad than Benitez, because he has to go for the three points and to weaken his starting eleven could undermine that.

Liverpool's need is less acute, having put five points between themselves and fifth-placed Everton, so Benitez, who likes to rotate anyway, will probably do so with the aim of bringing back some of his big guns rested and refreshed for Tuesday's European decider.

Under the circumstances, the Champions League clash seems certain to take precedence in Benitez's thinking, although he will not want to cede Wenger a psychological advantage ahead of the return leg. On the other hand, Liverpool have previously sacrificed a domestic League match immediately prior to producing a top performance in Europe. As Barrett recalled: "One time against Crystal Palace, who were fighting relegation, Liverpool lost and came back strong to reach the European Final. There is a whole list of occasions when Liverpool have let themselves down in the League and them three or four days later they have proved people wrong. I don’t know how they do it because if you’re short of form you shouldn’t be able to pick yourselves up as easily as they do."

On the question of form, each club's results since both were eliminated from the FA Cup on 16th February - Arsenal at Manchester United and Liverpool by Barnsley at Anfield - offer a stark contrast. It has been Liverpool's most productive run of the season, their new-found consistency of selection being matched by improved results that have seen them win eight, lose one (to United at Old Trafford) and draw one (at the Emirates on Wednesday). Arsenal, though, have endured their worst spell of the season over the same period. The Gunners, who have played nine to Liverpool's ten in that time, have managed just two wins (away to AC Milan and Bolton), losing once (at Chelsea) and drawing six.

It is ironic that the thing which undermined Liverpool's Premier League challenge this season - too may drawn games - seems now to have sabotaged the Gunners title bid, after they'd led the table for so long. Ironically too, if Liverpool beat Arsenal on Saturday it would hand an advantage to the team Reds' fans would least like to see profit - their hated rivals Manchester United. But from a purely Liverpool perspective, three points at the Emirates would go a long way towards guaranteeing another Champions League adventure next season, irrespective of whether can progress past Arsenal in the current European campaign.

But although there is little doubt about who is in the better form going into Saturday's match, Arsenal were the better side on Wednesday, something Wenger will no doubt have stressed to his players.

Both sides did well to bounce back from defeats on 'Grand Slam Sunday' by securing morale-boosting wins in the Premier League last weekend. While Arsenal staged a remarkable comeback at Bolton, overturning a two-goal and one-man deficit in the second-half at The Reebok to win 3-2, Liverpool won the Merseyside derby 1-0 the following day.

Liverpool go back to London for what is only their second ever League visit to the Emirates. Their first trip to Arsenal's new home ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for the Gunners last season. Liverpool's last win on Arsenal turf was on 13th February 2000 at Highbury, when Gerard Houllier's side ran out 1-0 winners thanks to a Titi Camara goal. Three of the winning side that day are still at Anfield - Jamie Carragher, Sami Hyypia and Steven Gerrard. Since then Arsenal have won five and drawn two of their home League games against the Reds.

The Gunners have also enjoyed some success at Anfield, notably last season when, in the space of four days, they knocked Liverpool out of both domestic cup competitions, winning 3-1 on Merseyside in the FA Cup before thrashing the Reds 6-3 in the Carling Cup at Anfield. However, Benitez's side won 4-1 at Anfield in the League last season.

Earlier this season, on 28th October, the Gunners travelled to Merseyside having just thrashed Slavia Prague 7-0 in the Champions League. Liverpool had gone down 2-1 to Besiktas in Istanbul, but they took the lead against the Gunners after seven minutes through a superbly struck free-kick from Steven Gerrard. Arsenal took that set-back in their stride and continued to play their fluent passing game, threatening the Liverpool goal several times before finally being rewarded when Cesc Fabregas latched onto an Alexander Hleb through-ball to equalise ten minutes from time.

That was seen as a point gained by Liverpool and two dropped by Arsenal at the time: although both teams were unbeaten in the Premier League, Liverpool were struggling a little at Anfield while Arsenal went into the game on the back of 12 straight wins.

Since Benitez took over at Liverpool, Arsenal have had the better of the contests between the two clubs in all competitions, though there is not a great deal in it. At the Gunners' patch Arsenal have won three, drawn one and lost none. At Anfield, they've won two, drawn one, lost three. Remarkably, Liverpool have not beaten a fellow 'Big Four' club away from home under Benitez.

On the other hand, the Gunners have been beaten more times (14) by Liverpool in the Premier League than by any other club.

Overall, Saturday's will be the 201st meeting between the two teams in a major competition. So far, Arsenal have won 70, Liverpool have won 80, and 50 have been drawn, including last Wednesday's. In League games only, Liverpool have 68 wins to Arsenal's 58 wins, with 41 draws. At Arsenal, the record is Arsenal 37 wins, Liverpool 20 wins, and 26 draws.


FORM GUIDE

Arsenal

02 Apr (Champions League) v Liverpool (H) DREW 1-1
29 Mar (Premier League) v Bolton (A) WON 3-2
23 Mar (Premier League) v Chelsea (A) LOST 1-2
16 Mar (Premier League) v Middlesbrough (H) DREW 1-1
09 Mar (Premier League) v Wigan (A) DREW 0-0
04 Mar (Champions League) v AC Milan (A) WON 2-0

Liverpool

02 Apr (Champions League) v Arsenal (A) DREW 1-1
30 Mar (Premier League) v Everton (H) WON 1-0
23 Mar (Premier League) v Man Utd (A) LOST 0-3
15 Mar (Premier League) v Reading (H) WON 2-1
11 Mar (Champions League) v Inter Milan (A) WON 1-0
08 Mar (Premier League) v Newcastle (H) WON 3-0


TEAM NEWS

Arsenal

Arsene Wenger has injury concerns over his two main strikers ahead of Saturday's clash. Robin van Persie is a major doubt with a thigh problem, while Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to feature despite carrying an ankle injury.

Speaking to Arsenal TV Online on Thursday afternoon, Wenger gave van Persie only a 20 per cent chance of playing because of the thigh injury that forced him off at half time on Wednesday.

"If you ask for my gut feeling right now I would say no, Robin won't play," said Wenger. "At the moment it is 80 per cent no and 20 per cent yes. But he has a scan this afternoon and he is better today than he was last night. That is positive for a muscle problem. But we'll know much more about it on Friday morning."

"We also have Adebayor who has a little ankle problem. We'll see how he is tomorrow. I hope he'll be OK. But the time is so short between the games it is very difficult to make a decision the morning after a game. You don't know if it is a bruise or a little twist and the first 24 hours doesn't tell you a lot about that."

Bacary Sagna (ankle) and Tomas Rosicky (hamstring) are ruled out of Saturday's game as well as the Champions League quarter-final second leg at Anfield. But Wenger is optimistic about Sagna's chances of returning next weekend at Old Trafford.

"They will not be back for the Liverpool games," said Wenger. "But Sagna is making good progress. Manchester United is the earliest for him. We are trying everything we can to get him back for that game. But we'll know more when he starts to run outside and he has not begun that."

Meanwhile, midfielder Abou Diaby is suspended.

Last Starting XI (v Liverpool): Almunia, Toure, Gallas, Senderos, Clichy, Eboue (Bendtner 67), Flamini, Fabregas, Hleb, Van Persie (Walcott 46), Adebayor. Subs Not Used: Lehmann, Diaby, Song Billong, Silva, Justin Hoyte.

Squad: Almunia, Toure, Gallas, Senderos, Clichy, Eboue, Flamini, Fabregas, Hleb, van Persie, Adebayor, Lehmann, Walcott, Song, Gilberto, J Hoyte, Bendtner, Denilson.


Liverpool

Rafa Benitez could make changes for this second of three clashes between the sides within the space of a week. Javier Mascherano is definitely out suspended, but Benitez, keen to guard against tiredness and with Tuesday in mind, may decide to rest one or more of the likes of Fernando Torres, Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher.

Fabio Aurelio took a knock towards the end of Wednesday's match and Torres went off in that game, but probably as a precautionary measure. It is possible Benitez will field a fairly different Liverpool side from the one that played in midweek, with Peter Crouch in line for a rare start, possibly partnered by Andriy Voronin, who needs to get some playing time under his belt following his recent lay-off through injury. The Reds, still aiming to keep things tight and hit Arsenal on the counter, could set up with a 4-4-2 formation.

Last Starting XI (v Arsenal): Reina, Carragher, Skrtel, Hyypia, Aurelio, Mascherano, Alonso (Lucas 76), Kuyt, Gerrard, Babel (Benayoun 57), Torres (Voronin 85). Subs Not Used: Itandje, Riise, Crouch, Arbeloa.

Squad: Reina, Finnan, Arbeloa, Skrtel, Aurelio, Benayoun, Lucas, Alonso, Riise, Voronin, Crouch, Pennant, Babel, Hyypia, Gerrard, Torres, Carragher, Kuyt, Itandje.


PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal

Emmanuel Adebayor troubled the Liverpool defence on Wednesday both in the air, where he headed home the Gunners' goal, and with his left-wing raids in the second-half that saw him cut in dangerously along the by-line several times to fizz dangerous low crosses into the middle. Alexander Hleb could also pose problems with his excellent close control, particularly if Wenger pushes him inside to the more central role the Belarussian seems to prefer. Meanwhile, Cesc Fabregas, who scored earlier this season at Anfield, will look to run the show in midfield, and may have more licence to do so given Mascherano's suspension.

Liverpool

Steven Gerrard showed again in midweek how important he is to the Liverpool set-up. If Benitez plays him, either from the start or subsequently from the bench, he will look to hurt Arsenal as he did on Wednesday with his superb driving run and cross on 26 minutes that set up Dirk Kuyt with the chance to equalise Adebayor's opener within three minutes.

Benitez said afterwards: "When you have top class players, they make the difference. Sometimes it is Torres, this time it was Gerrard. He is a player who can change a game on his own. And he certainly did that with his run into the box to create our goal. He changed the game. That goal we scored was the real difference for us, that one piece of quality, world class, which changed everything. Stevie can do such things. It was a run they could not stop. It could change the whole tie." Arsenal know what to expect, and it will be interesting to see how they attempt to counter it.

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