Friday, October 23, 2009

Red For Danger: Liverpool Empire Could Be One Defeat From Crumbling


Four consecutive losses have left Liverpool seemingly at the risk of implosion. After defeat by Lyons in the Champions League on Tuesday, their next opponents are Manchester United and Rafael Benítez’s side will take to the pitch at Anfield on Sunday in the knowledge that another loss would all but end their Barclays Premier League title hopes with seven months of the campaign remaining.

Despite having signed a new five-year contract seven months ago, he is not immune from dismissal, but could the club afford to sack him even if they wished to? A salary in the region of £4 million a season would entitle him to a payoff of about £18 million.

However, Liverpool’s annual profits are being swallowed up by interest payments on the £250 million debt built up by Tom Hicks and George Gillett Jr., the co-owners, and the club could not afford to make the four signings their manager sought in the summer, so it is questionable if they would have the means to remove him.

Equally, one of the main reasons that Benítez was awarded such a long-term deal was the owners’ desire to present a picture of stability to potential investors. Sacking him now would not only expose that charade, it would also present Hicks and Gillett with the problem of finding a new manager.

Benítez, though, needs results — and he needs them badly. In recent weeks it has appeared as if the numerous internal battles have taken their toll. Real Madrid are often touted as the most likely providers of an exit strategy for the Spaniard, but should Liverpool’s form continue to decline, then their manager’s stock would suffer commensurately.

Team spirit has been lacking since pre-season. It is almost as if the established stars recognised that the squad was not equipped to challenge for the biggest prizes and that their belief in the Benítez project has diminished.

Fernando Torres, Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher and Javier Mascherano are top-class performers, but none has been at his best. All, apart from Mascherano, appear committed to the club, but their patience would surely be tested if Liverpool fell out of the title race with so much of the season to be played.

Torres, Gerrard and Mascherano have next year’s World Cup finals in the back of their minds and the concern for Benítez would be how to get the best out of his big names without the motivation of a title challenge or a good run in the Champions League.

The biggest worry, though, would be how the owners would respond to the doomsday scenario of failure to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Lose on Sunday and the gap between Liverpool and the top five could increase to five points. If Liverpool were to fall out of the “big four” picture altogether, then Hicks and Gillett could feasibly make up for the loss of prize money by using player sales to finance their debt repayments. The most saleable assets would be those the club could least afford to lose.

The booing that greeted Benítez’s decision to replace Yossi Benayoun with Andriy Voronin on Tuesday may not have been new to Anfield regulars, but the ferocity of their disapproval was. This was the moment when frustration about Liverpool’s inability to arrest their decline bubbled over, although a little more than half an hour earlier Benítez’s name had been sung by the Kop after his team took the lead through Benayoun.

The fans stood shoulder to shoulder with Benítez when his job was under threat two years ago. They even marched to the stadium in protest at plans by Hicks and Gillett to replace him with Jürgen Klinsmann. There are few clubs where the relationship between manager and supporters is as strong as at Anfield, a legacy of the legendary Bill Shankly’s incredible bond with the Anfield crowd. Benítez will know, however, that even such powerful devotion is conditional and a failure to get results will inevitably lead to even his most committed fans questioning his ability to win the league title they crave.

A defeat by United would further damage his lustre in the eyes of those who have backed him so resolutely. However, it should also be noted that the more political supporters lay the blame for the problems on the pitch at the owners’ door rather than Benítez’s.

The situation at Liverpool has become so desperate in recent weeks that there are some fans who have argued that they might be able to stomach defeat on Sunday if it pushed the owners they revile closer to the exit.

Hicks and Gillett are expected to attend the match and are likely to be in for a rough ride as disenchantment with their regime reaches new heights. A march in protest against the Americans has been organised and the Spirit of Shankly supporters’ union are hopeful that thousands of people will join their campaign.

The owners have refused to budge despite their lack of popularity and the overwhelming feeling is that they will quit Anfield willingly only if an investor makes it financially worthwhile. Both are involved in an as yet unsuccessful search for investment, with the Middle East the centre of their attentions.

Their problem is that potential investors would argue that Liverpool’s value will be reduced should the club fail to make it through to the lucrative stages of this season’s Champions League and increasingly likely failure to qualify for next season’s competition.

How they would react to another damaging defeat is open to question, given the public support that Gillett offered to Benítez this week and the backing that has been afforded to the manager by Hicks in the past.

Should they see his presence at the helm as being potentially damaging to their chances of securing investment, or a total sale of the club, they could begin to see Benítez as expendable.

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